Republican debate : 2012 looms as a test of competing economic theories

WASHINGTON — In 1980, Republican presidential hopeful George Bush ridiculed rival Ronald Reagan's proposals as "voodoo economics." In 1996, Bob Dole warned that Steve Forbes' plan for a flat tax would send the deficit soaring.

This time, at least so far, there are few such disputes in the Republican field.

With the economy swamping other issues for American voters, Republican contenders have united behind a conservative template that would reduce the role of government — slashing spending, cutting taxes and reducing regulation — and rely on the private sector to pull the nation from the economic doldrums.

On the other side, President Obama would cut spending less drastically, raise taxes on top earners and use the government to encourage worker training and develop green energy jobs.

republican debate

So next year's presidential election is shaping up as a classic contest between competing theories about how to deal with the nation's two towering economic problems: Lowering the 9.1% unemployment rate and the record budget deficit. Those issues are likely to dominate the 2012 campaign.

"There's basically going to be a debate about the fundamentals of economic philosophy," says Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a former director of the Congressional Budget Office and adviser to Republican John McCain in the 2008 race. "He has his approach; we have a different one. The election is a referendum. The American people decide."

Obama last week traveled to Durham, N.C., to meet with the Jobs and Competitiveness Council he had appointed to discuss how to generate more jobs. A few days later, Republican front-runner Mitt Romney sat down with unemployed workers at Buddy Brew Coffee in Tampa, telling them that White House policies had made it "harder and harder for people to find work."

Both sides argue that the other approach has failed.

The GOP charges that the $800 billion stimulus bill Obama pushed through Congress in 2009 hasn't delivered as promised. On Friday, the Republican National Committee and congressional Republicans in news releases and web videos mocked the one-year anniversary of the White House announcement of "Recovery Summer," a six-week public-relations campaign designed to spotlight jobs from infrastructure projects funded by the Recovery Act.

Democrats counter the deficit is due more to the across-the-board tax cuts backed by President George W. Bush, and that the lack of effective government regulation of financial institutions contributed to the economy's meltdown. Obama is urging voters to show patience as the economy begins to improve.

The unity on the Republican side — from Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain to Romney and Pawlenty — reflects a more consistently conservative GOP and the influence of the Tea Party movement. Former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty has unveiled the most specific proposal, though one that critics call unrealistic.

Pawlenty vows to cap federal spending at 18% of the total economy, the lowest level in 45 years and to slash taxes, including eliminating taxes on dividends and capital gains.

Those policies, he says, would create jobs, wipe out the budget deficit and spur growth.

"If China can have 5% growth and India can have 5% growth and Brazil can have 5% growth, the United States of America can have 5% growth," he told a convention of conservative activists in Minneapolis on Saturday, likening it to John Kennedy's ambitious goals to explore space.

At last week's Republican debate in New Hampshire, Romney backed him up. "The ideas Tim described, those are in the right wheelhouse," he said.

When he formally announced his presidential campaign this month, Romney offered few specifics as he promised to cut taxes, modernize regulations, reduce government bureaucracy and create jobs. He did vow to cap federal spending at 20% of gross domestic product.

"These global spending camps may sound nice, but they magically assume away challenges we know we'll be facing," says Jared Bernstein, who recently left the White House as Vice President Biden's chief economic adviser.

"To impose them would mean literally trillions in Social Security and Medicare cuts that become even more severe as our population ages and health costs continue to rise."

The Romney camp defends the spending cap as "an achievable goal."

"People who say it is not are using that as an excuse to avoid making the tough decisions," says Lanhee Chen, policy director for the Romney campaign. He says the former Massachusetts governor will be releasing more specific economic proposals — including provisions to retrain workers, generate jobs in pursuing energy independence, and open global markets in China and elsewhere — over the next several months.

(via USATODAY)